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This week's predictions

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NFL Week 10: the closest calls still to play

Our call this season: 92.5 of 137 winners (68%)

Who's been right

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NFL 2026: every model, through Week 10 (137 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed)

  1. 1. Sonny Moore31 of 43 · 72%
  2. 2. Sagarin30 of 42 · 71%
  3. 3. Consensus (our call)92.5 of 137 · 68%
  4. 4. Market92.5 of 137 · 68%
  5. 5. DRatings91.5 of 137 · 67%

Winner right leaves out a game a model called even (its margin rounds to 0): Elo 2, SRS 2.

College 2026: Through Week 10. Each model on the same 153 games: those where SP+, Elo and Our model all existed before kickoff. See all 11 models →

  1. 1. Market195 of 245 · 80%
  2. 2. Elo167 of 222 · 75%
  3. 3. SP+ from Week 2141 of 192 · 73%
  4. 4. Our model from Week 4115 of 157 · 73%
  5. 5. ESPN FPI from Week 852 of 71 · 73%

Each model is graded on every game it predicted before kickoff, from the first game of the season.

Power rankings

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Our model's top 5 entering NFL Week 10

  1. 1. 49ers–
  2. 2. Jaguars↑ 1
  3. 3. Rams↓ 1
  4. 4. Bills–
  5. 5. Bengals–

Standings / playoff picture

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NFL seeds as of today · college: the AP Top 25

  1. AFC
  2. 1 Bills7–1
  3. 2 Broncos7–2
  4. 3 Jaguars6–2
  5. 4 Steelers6–2
  6. 5 Chiefs6–2
  7. 6 Bengals6–2
  8. 7 Patriots5–4
  1. NFC
  2. 1 49ers7–1
  3. 2 Bears7–2
  4. 3 Giants5–3–1
  5. 4 Panthers3–5
  6. 5 Lions6–2
  7. 6 Vikings6–2
  8. 7 Packers6–3
  1. College · AP
  2. 1 Georgia
  3. 2 Utah
  4. 3 Notre Dame
  5. 4 UCLA
  6. 5 Miami
  7. 6 Indiana
  8. 7 Alabama

Injuries: key players

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Official game status, NFL Week 10 injury report

  • Myles Montgomery RB · New England PatriotsOut
  • TreVeyon Henderson RB · New England PatriotsOut
  • Romeo Doubs WR · New England PatriotsOut
  • Julian Hill TE · New England PatriotsOut
  • Isiah Pacheco RB · Detroit LionsOut

Team efficiency

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NFL offense against defense, EPA per play, opponent-adjusted: up and right is better

Jaguars: offense +0.10, defense allowed −0.1049ers: offense +0.14, defense allowed −0.05Bills: offense +0.12, defense allowed 0.00Chiefs: offense +0.10, defense allowed −0.02Bengals: offense +0.13, defense allowed +0.02Rams: offense +0.02, defense allowed −0.09Packers: offense +0.03, defense allowed −0.07Bears: offense +0.06, defense allowed −0.02Buccaneers: offense −0.08, defense allowed −0.14Seahawks: offense −0.04, defense allowed −0.09Broncos: offense +0.01, defense allowed −0.04Texans: offense +0.03, defense allowed 0.00Patriots: offense +0.04, defense allowed +0.02Steelers: offense −0.02, defense allowed −0.04Panthers: offense +0.05, defense allowed +0.03Lions: offense +0.08, defense allowed +0.06Vikings: offense −0.14, defense allowed −0.13Giants: offense −0.03, defense allowed −0.01Falcons: offense −0.05, defense allowed −0.02Cowboys: offense +0.07, defense allowed +0.10Ravens: offense −0.03, defense allowed 0.00Jets: offense −0.02, defense allowed +0.02Browns: offense −0.07, defense allowed 0.00Commanders: offense −0.03, defense allowed +0.04Raiders: offense −0.01, defense allowed +0.06Cardinals: offense −0.02, defense allowed +0.06Saints: offense −0.03, defense allowed +0.07Dolphins: offense −0.05, defense allowed +0.06Colts: offense −0.10, defense allowed +0.05Chargers: offense −0.19, defense allowed −0.02Titans: offense −0.09, defense allowed +0.08Eagles: offense −0.13, defense allowed +0.05good offense, good defensebad offense, bad defense

Race for the #1 pick

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Chance of the #1 pick in the 2027 NFL draft, from our 20,000 season simulations. The Chargers and Titans lead; 4 teams still have a 5%+ shot.

  1. 1. Chargers 0–837%
  2. 2. Titans 1–736%
  3. 3. Dolphins 1–712%
  4. 4. Eagles 2–77%
  5. 5. Jets 2–74%

Players to watch

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This season's NFL leaders

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Latest official news

All teams

NFL · 32 teams College · AP Top 25

Every college prediction →

NFL and college football, followed by the numbers: our own predictions, efficiency stats and weekly report cards.

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